What caught my eye this week.
You can passionately make the case for financial independence being hugely positive versus retiring early being a bit of wild goose chase – and I have. But if some unfortunate office drone has just been sent to the seldom-visited filing cabinets in the strange rooms behind security to spend a week hunting for all the paper-based invoices from O’Brien and Sons from the 1970s, well, good luck getting them to vote for the job.
Of course many jobs are rubbish. But from the earliest days of this blog I’ve argued they used to be even worse. All repetitive manual paperwork and calling Mr Blimp ‘Sir’ as he dressed you down for wearing the wrong kind of tie again.
Not to mention the love of coal mining and sweating in an iron foundry that middle-aged middle-class columnists love to champion – but would be dead doing themselves in a fortnight.
Somebody’s got to do it
There’s a big difference between a job being unsatisfying and the actual work being pointless or futile.
Yet a decent chunk of the Retire Early and Forever cohort of the FIRE scene believe that modern jobs are literally pointless – even to the organisation they’re working for.
They cite arcane tasks steeped in ritual but bereft of meaning, such as preparing a presentation for a senior manager that they suspect will never be read. And to be fair most of us can agree with them about all those pointless meetings.
Overall though, I believe most of these jobs have a function – at least in the private sector.
Sure there might be a bit of padded headcount here or some not-yet-optimised away employees there.
But even badly-run companies won’t survive for long carrying too much deadweight that’s doing nothing to keep the operation going.
Strike through
I saw this when I was managing my own small start-up. There were never enough hands for all the work to be done – much of it indeed annoying or trivial-seeming.
Some of those hired hands were a bit useless, I reluctantly concede. But not what we had them doing.
At least not from the myopic perspective of our company. Which is to say: nobody was curing cancer.
That is clearly a big issue for a lot of people. If pushed, they can see their work has a function. But they don’t see the point for humanity, I suppose.
The other issue is the typical cog doesn’t have a good view of the machine. Your useless role writing up user manuals that you believe nobody reads might be a lifesaver one day when your company’s minor malfunctioning gadget brings a giant operation to a halt. Not to mention it’s hard to sell stuff without operating instructions, even if most people ignore them. So they’re a function of sales and marketing.
Or just ask whoever presumably has done something wrong at Crowdstrike. I don’t know what exactly crippled half the world IT system’s following its software update yesterday. But I’ll bet it’s a trivial-seeming thing gone wrong.
Not some exciting security function that was dreamed up by the company’s brain trust and lovingly laboured-on like Michelangelo working over a ceiling. Rather, the version control or installation code or similar.
Boring stuff that gets no acclaim, and that nobody rushes out of university to get started on.
But which is quietly absolutely essential.
It’s a wonderful life
For more on all this, you can click over to Byrne Hobart’s devotional paean to the complexity of modern workplaces on Capital Gains this week.
In taking down a Bible of the Modern Work is Rubbish movement – the late David Graeber’s Bullshit Jobs – Hobart writes:
Graeber estimates that roughly half of all work fits his fake job categorization, which implies that the economy’s productive capacity is roughly twice the output we actually get. It would be a pretty big deal if this were true: we could have a lot more leisure, and a lot more stuff.
And there are people motivated to make this happen! The strongest single argument against Graeber’s book is: did anyone at Bain or McKinsey read it? What about KKR and Blackstone?
Did any owner of any business of any size read it and say: “What a sec! That’s right! Most jobs really are fake jobs designed to make rich people feel good about themselves. But what makes me feel good about myself is having more money, so I’m going to start firing people and keeping the money.”
The closest you can get is Elon Musk at Twitter, which did reveal that the service could keep running, and ship new features, with a lower headcount. But that happened at a company that was notoriously inefficient, for years, and one where it’s widely-agreed that they unnecessarily blew their lead in short-form many-to-many communications, and took too long to get into messaging.
If there’s one large-scale example of the thesis playing out, and the thesis holds that it’s describing a ubiquitous phenomenon, something doesn’t add up.
Hobart rightly concedes that many jobs aren’t fun to do and also that many people are in the wrong jobs for them, personally.
But as he concludes:
The world is full of mysterious economic phenomena. You should expect it to be!
A world where you can consider a random career or business for a few seconds and instantly identify a way to double its efficiency is a much weirder world than one where those mysteries tend to have satisfying answers.
It’s also a world whose sizable and growing aggregate wealth is a big mystery: if we’re wasting more and more of our time, shouldn’t we be getting poorer?
Go give it a read and see what you think.
Honestly, with all the dire warnings about the typical worker’s imminent replaceability by an AI drone, it’d be nice to think we were just giving each other things to do out of habit, ego, stupidity, or an obliviousness to the bottom line.
In an AI-powered world we could then continue to pay ourselves to – metaphorically – dig holes on a Monday only fill them up again by Friday.
But real-world capitalism is far too ruthless for that.
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
The All-Weather portfolio – Monevator
How people invest their pensions and other assets – Monevator
From the archive-ator: Nine underrated tools to help you achieve financial independence – Monevator
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
UK inflation holds steady at 2%, holding just above expectations – CNBC
Nearly 1.1m people immigrated to England and Wales in the year to mid-2023 – ONS
London leads surprise rebound in house prices – This Is Money
New law aims to prevent repeat of Truss mini-budget – BBC
Nationwide’s £2.9bn takeover of Virgin Money cleared by watchdog – This Is Money
More than half-a-million people now caught in 60% tax ‘trap’ – The Accountant
King’s Speech summary: Labour’s key agenda points… – BBC
…with a claim the pension shake-up could add £11,000 to average pots – Guardian
Money can buy happiness, suggests new study – Guardian
Supply chain stresses are coming back – Axios
Products and services
Monzo launches a free card for under-16s – Monzo
First-time buyers handed 95% mortgage boost – Which
Should buy-to-let landlords fix now or risk a tracker? – This Is Money
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link and get up to £50 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine
Keyless tech is contributing to a wave in car thefts… – Which
…what else is driving the car insurance crisis? [Search result] – FT
Pret to end ‘free’ coffee subscription – Be Clever With You Cash
Eco homes near the sea for sale, in pictures – Guardian
Comment and opinion
A balanced portfolio always comes with regrets – A Wealth of Common Sense
When does it make sense to own a non-standard investment? – Humble Dollar
Is a ‘total bond’ fund still a good choice? [US but relevant] – Oblivious Investor
Rebalancing sometimes produces higher returns. Not always – Morningstar
Don’t take the last dollar – Of Dollars and Data
Wage dysmorphia – Guardian
When the game changes, invent a whole new one – Abnormal Returns
The cost of war – Klement on Investing
Three bad economic narratives that are dead but will persist – Cullen Roche
Commodities for the long run [Nerdy] – CFA Institute
The UBS Global Wealth Report [PDF] – UBS
Risk and luck mini-special
The risks we miss – Humble Dollar
All the luck we cannot see – The Uncertainty of It All
Is risk always bad news? – Simple Living in Somerset
Naughty corner: Active antics
The last time the S&P 500 dropped more than 2% was 512 days ago – Sherwood
Most investors don’t believe in efficient markets – Verdad
The increasing complexity of the ETF universe [Search result] – FT
Record speed-run into small caps leaves US stock market searching for catalysts – Sherwood
Asset manager profit margins are getting thinner – Institutional Investor
How to make and lose millions in the crypto economy and not lose your mind – Sherwood
Private equity’s dry powder mountain reaches record height – Institutional Investor
Kindle book bargains
The Hidden Half by Michael Blastland – £0.99 on Kindle
How to Own the World by Andrew Craig – £0.99 on Kindle
Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss – £0.99 on Kindle
Bejiing Rules: China’s Quest for Global Influence by Bethany Allen – £0.99 on Kindle
Environmental factors
Modelling the economic consequences of climate change – Klement on Investing
Lost area of Welsh rainforest to be returned to ancient glory – Guardian
Bliss cycling along the wild coast of Estonia – Guardian
Robot overlord roundup
Goldman throws cold water on AI mania – Institutional Investor
Can AI make work meetings more bearable? – BBC
Samsung’s new image-generating AI tool is a little too good – The Verge
Assassination aftermath mini-special
The Trump assassination attempt is a window into America’s fractured reality – Vox
This is the Great Ravine – Epsilon Theory
Off our beat
Push the fence – Raptitude
Was Gareth Southgate great, or just lucky? – FT
Where to build a brand new town in Britain – UK Day One
Why skilled immigration is a national security priority for the US – Noahpinion
The knotty death of the necktie – The New Yorker
Underground cave found on moon could be ideal base for explorers – Guardian
It’s time to stop arguing over the population slowdown and to start adapting – Vox
Why is 80% of Mexico nearly empty? – Uncharted Territories
And finally…
“Wealth is the absence of economic anxiety.”
– Scott Galloway, The Algebra of Wealth
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