by Veronica Blatt
Manpower Group has released its newest Employment Outlook Survey, and the outlook for the upcoming quarter (+22%) remains unchanged from the previous quarter, although it does represent a year-over-year decline (-6%). Persistently stubborn inflation and high interest rates are some of the prime contributors to the softened global hiring plans. Key findings from the survey include:
- Globally, 42% of employers plan to add headcount in the next quarter, compared to 20% who anticipate a reduction. Thirty-five percent of employers expect no changes to their current staffing levels.
- The strongest hiring outlooks are reported in Costa Rica (+35%) and Switzerland (+34%), while the weakest outlooks are in Argentina and Romania (3% each).
- Nine of the countries in the survey indicate stronger global hiring plans in the upcoming quarter compared to a year ago: Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Slovakia, Taiwan, Belgium, France, Poland, and Hungary. Argentina reports no anticipated change compared to last year, while all of the remaining countries anticipate less hiring in Q3 2024 than Q3 2023. Of these, Puerto Rico is reporting the largest anticipated decline (-27%).
- Global hiring plans vary by employer size as well, with only 15% of small employers (<10 employees) planning to add headcount. At least 25% of employers with a minimum of 250 employees are anticipating increased hiring.
- While hiring in the information technology sector has declined 5% from the previous quarter, it remains the sector with the strongest hiring activity for the seventh consecutive quarter.
- A convincing majority of employers in every industry sector globally is reporting difficulty finding enough skilled candidates to fulfill their hiring needs. This will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future as Baby Boomer retirements continue to outpace new workers. Employers will need to get creative at retaining existing workers of all ages to meet workforce demands.
- More than half of employers expect AI and machine learning (ML) to create additional job opportunities over the next two years. Fewer than 20% believe it will lead to an overall reduction in hiring. Optimism surrounding AI varies widely by both seniority and region.
While it is true that hiring has softened and appears poised to soften a bit more, demographics remain positive for well-connected recruiters. Election-year politics in the US often lead to caution among employers, but there are still multiple pockets of strong hiring activity, both regionally and sector-based.
